2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of West Virginia. Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin was first elected in a 2010 special election to complete the term of fellow Democrat Robert Byrd, who died in office. He won his first full term in a landslide in 2012 and was narrowly re-elected to a second full term in 2018. The last time a Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat was in 1956. Joe Manchin has indicated that he is running for reelection to a third full term in office, but has not made a definitive statement.[1]
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| Elections in West Virginia |
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Background
West Virginia was a Democratic stronghold from the New Deal through the 1990s, but like much of rural Appalachia, the state has rapidly swung towards the Republican Party in the years since. It is now staunchly Republican and considered a very deeply red state, giving Donald Trump a roughly 39 percentage point margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election, his second-strongest performance in the nation. However, Manchin has continued to see electoral success, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to the state.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[2] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney and governor Jim Justice.
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was reelected in 2018 (even amid a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, many analysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. In fact, due to Manchin’s poor favorability ratings and Justice’s strong ratings with the West Virginia electorate, Decision Desk HQ considers the race a “safe” Republican flip.[3] Should Manchin not run, the race is universally expected to be an easy Republican pickup.[4]
Democratic primary
Publicly expressed interest
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. Senator (2010–present)[5] (decision expected in December 2023)[6]
Endorsements
Joe Manchin
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Stephen A. Schwarzman, Chairman of the Strategic and Policy Forum (2017) (Republican)[1]
- U.S. Senators
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present) (Republican)[7]
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[8]
- Organizations
Republican primary
Governor Jim Justice
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U.S. Representative Alex Mooney
Declared
- Jim Justice, 36th Governor of West Virginia (2017–present)[10]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)[11]
- Chris Rose, coal miner[12]
Potential
- Evan Jenkins, former Chief Justice of the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals (2021–2022) from position 5 (2018–2022), former U.S. Representative from West Virginia's 3rd congressional district (2015–2018), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[13]
Declined
- Carol Miller, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[14][15]
- Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for this seat in 2018 (running for governor)[16]
Endorsements
Jim Justice
- U.S. Senators
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–present)[17]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[18]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[19]
- Individuals
- Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–present) (Justice's wife)[20]
- Organizations
Alex Mooney
- U.S. Senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[21]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[21]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present)[22]
- Statewide officials
- Riley Moore, West Virginia State Treasurer (2021-present)[23]
- Craig Blair, Lieutenant Governor of West Virginia (2021-present)[24]
- State legislators
- Eric Householder, Majority Leader of the West Virginia House of Delegates (2023-present)[24]
- Rollan Roberts, state senator from the 9th district (2019-present)[23]
- Chuck Horst, state delegate from the 62nd district (2020-present)[23]
- Patricia Rucker, state senator from the 16th district (2016-present)[24]
- Robert Karnes, state senator from the 11th district (2020-present)[24]
- Chris Pritt, state delegate from the 36th district (2020-present)[23]
- Pat McGeehan, state delegate from the 1st district (2014-present)[23]
- Organizations
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund[25]
- Club for Growth[26]
- Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)[20]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[27]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Patrick Morrisey |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14-17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Tossup | January 24, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Battleground | January 6, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Lean R (flip) | January 24, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ[3] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Jim Justice (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Alex Mooney (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
References
- Schwartz, Brian (October 12, 2021). "Billionaire Peltz draws GOP megadonors to $5,000-a-plate fundraiser for Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin". CNBC.
Manchin told the crowd of donors that he plans to run for reelection in 2024...
- Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
- Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
- Kondik, Kyle. "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- Everett, Burgess. "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
- Neukam, Stephen (March 5, 2023). "Manchin says he'll decide his 'political future' in December". The Hill.
- Everett, Burgess (July 26, 2021). "Manchin weighs another term as his influence peaks". Politico.
Murkowski and Collins said they would return the favor and back Manchin in 2024.
- Schnell, Mychael (February 6, 2022). "Manchin crosses party lines in officially endorsing Murkowski". The Hill.
Murkowski said she will endorse Manchin if he decides to run for reelection in 2024.
- Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
The pro-Israel PAC also weighed in on several Senate races that are expected to be hotly contested, endorsing incumbent Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV), all of whom are likely to face tough reelection races.
- Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- Nolting, Mike (November 27, 2022). "Political expert says the 2024 run for the U.S. Senate in West Virginia could determine the futures of many". Retrieved December 18, 2022.
- Mutnick, Ally (October 12, 2021). "3 members, 2 seats: West Virginia Republicans gird for redistricting showdown". Politico.
- Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- "AG Morrisey Announces Run For Governor". April 4, 2023.
- "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- radkins@hdmediallc.com, Roger Adkins. "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
- "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico.
- "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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