2024 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking re-election to a fourth term in office. He was last re-elected in 2018, with 50.3% of the vote. Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
2024 United States Senate election in Montana
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Jon Tester
Democratic


Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
1894
Capital referendum
2004
Initiative 96
2012
Referendum 121
2016
Initiative 182
2020
Initiative 190

Background

Montana is a moderately to strongly red state at the federal level, voting for former president Donald Trump by double digits in both 2016 and 2020. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean,[2] and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split.[3]

On April 4, 2023, the Montana State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians decried the bill as a "partisan power grab" and claimed it was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee.[4][5] FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich questioned whether the Libertarian Party had truly cost Republicans the 2006 and 2012 races, pointing out that Republicans would have needed to win the Libertarian vote overwhelmingly in order to beat Tester in a one-on-one race and that many Libertarians might not have voted in the race at all without a Libertarian on the ballot.[6]

The New York Times reported that the bill was the brainchild of Montana's other Senator Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and that his allies urged Republican state senators to support it; one legislator said they were outright told by Republican officials that the bill was intended to weaken Tester. After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[7] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[8] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[9]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements
Jon Tester
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Republican primary

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Rosendale[lower-alpha 1]
Organizations
Tim Sheehy[lower-alpha 1]
Statewide Officials

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Russell
Fagg		 Matt
Rosendale		 Tim
Sheehy		 Corey
Stapleton		 Ryan
Zinke		 Other/Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] ± 4.0% 2% 36% 2% 6% 26% 28%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[20] Lean D January 24, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Battleground January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup January 24, 2023

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Greg
Gianforte (R)		 Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Matt
Rosendale (R)		 Other Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) February 18–21, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 5% 7%
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 40% – 15%
Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Ryan
Zinke (R)		 Undecided
Political Company (R) January 30 – February 1, 2023 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Notes
  1. Has not declared their candidacy
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters

References
  1. Everett, Burgess. "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  2. Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023). "Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024". Morning Consult. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  3. Coleman, J. Miles (February 2, 2023). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  4. "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
  5. "Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester".
  6. "The GOP Is Trying To Tilt Montana's Senate Race In Its Favor. It Probably Won't Work".
  7. "Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules".
  8. "Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary".
  9. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3".
  10. Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  11. Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). "Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines". Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023. Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
  12. "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection". March 30, 2023.
  13. "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". March 16, 2023.
  14. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  15. Holt, Matt (February 2, 2023). "Montana machinations: How Republicans are preparing to take on Jon Tester". National Journal. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  16. Brown, Matthew (November 12, 2022). "Surging Montana GOP eyes big prize: US Senate seat in 2024". The Intelligencer. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  17. Slacik, Sophia (November 23, 2022). "The 2024 Senate battle has begun and the electoral map does not favor Democrats". Rosendale has communicated interest in a rematch with Tester
  18. "Senate GOP close to landing top recruit in Montana". March 9, 2023.
  19. "This Montana Republican wouldn't support McCarthy, but a major group may support him for Senate".
  20. "2024 Senate Race Ratings". Amy Walter. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  21. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  22. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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