2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020.

See also: 2024 United States gubernatorial elections
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic


Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Although both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats; multiple state-wide offices, including the governorship, secretary of state, and attorney general, are also held by Democrats. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points.[1][2]

The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent Pat McCrory by 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[2][3]

The 2024 election is expected to be very competitive, as North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state and this election is taking place in a presidential year, and the incumbent is term-limited making this seat open. The only Democrat that has declared their candidacy is Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. Two Republicans have declared their candidacy; Mark Robinson, the current Lieutenant Governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer.[4]

Democratic primary

Declared

Potential

Declined

Endorsements
Josh Stein
Federal officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mandy
Cohen		 Jeff
Jackson		 Josh
Stein		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 18% 12% 22% 9% 39%

Republican primary

Declared

Announcement pending

Potential

Declined

Endorsements
Mark Robinson
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Dale
Folwell		 Pat
McCrory		 Mark
Robinson		 Thom
Tillis		 Steve
Troxler		 Mark
Walker		 Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[upper-alpha 2] April 25–29, 2022 707 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% - 43% - 9% 8% - 37%
The Differentiators (R) December 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% - 60% - - - - 34%
- 21% 60% - - - - 19%
- - 58% - - 8% - 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% - 54% 20% - - 5% 17%

Other candidates
Declared
  • Mike Ross, businessman[23]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Lean D January 13, 2023
Inside Elections[25] Battleground January 20, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Tossup January 19, 2023

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Mark Robinson
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Stein (D)		 Mark
Robinson (R)		 Undecided
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] May 5-8, 2023 802 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 2–3, 2023 704 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 44% 14%
Differentiators (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[upper-alpha 4] May 12–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. This poll was sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  4. This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References
  1. "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  2. "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  3. "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  4. Schneider, Elena. "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". POLITICO. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  6. Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
  7. Doyle, Steve (November 29, 2022). "Early poll on 2024 North Carolina governor's race has 1 surprise suggestion". WSPA 7NEWS. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  8. Cama, Timothy; Bogardus, Kevin (January 20, 2023). "Rumors swirl: Is EPA's Regan running for governor?". POLITICO. Retrieved January 27, 2023.
  9. Baltzegar, Alex (January 20, 2023). "Cooper declines to endorse Stein in 2024 gubernatorial race". The Carolina Journal. Retrieved January 27, 2023.
  10. "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024".
  11. "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
  12. "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
  13. Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  14. "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  15. "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  16. Robertson, Gary. "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  17. Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  18. Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  19. "Sure sounds like an #NCGov announcement forthcoming from fmr Rep. Mark Walker". May 9, 2023.
  20. "Old North State Politics: Who Is In and Out for 2024 in NC Politics?". December 29, 2022.
  21. "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist".
  22. Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  23. Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  24. "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 13, 2023.
  25. "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  26. "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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