2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine was elected in 2018 with 57% of the vote. Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office.

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic


Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Hampton
Mayor
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
City Council
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Virginia by about 10 percentage points. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. Representative congressional delegation, and its state senate. However, Republicans flipped the Governorship and the state house in the 2021 elections.[1][2][3]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen. He also won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[4][5]

This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[6]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements
Tim Kaine
Individuals
Organizations

Republican primary

Declared
  • Jonathan Emord, author and constitutional litigator[8]
  • Eddie Garcia, army veteran[9]
  • Scott Parkinson, former chief-of-staff to Ron DeSantis and non-profit executive[10]

Filed paperwork

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Endorsements
Jonathan Emord
Federal officials
Scott Parkinson
Organizations
Individuals

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Solid D January 24, 2023
Inside Elections[17] Battleground January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Safe D January 24, 2023

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Kaine (D)		 Glenn
Youngkin (R)		 Other Undecided
University of Mary Washington September 6–12, 2022 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 41% 39% 10%[lower-alpha 2] 10%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%

References
  1. "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  2. Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  3. "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  4. "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  7. "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  8. Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  9. Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
  10. Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot.
  11. "Chuck Smith FEC Statement of Candidacy". November 11, 2021. Retrieved September 12, 2022.
  12. "Can the GOP Win a Senate Seat in Virginia?". January 4, 2023.
  13. Leahy, Norman (August 24, 2022). "Opinion: Youngkin sets his marks on 2023, with an eye toward 2024". Washington Post. Retrieved September 19, 2022.
  14. "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  15. "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  16. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  17. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  18. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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