2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona.
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| Elections in Arizona |
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Background
Arizona is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, voting for Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and for Joe Biden by roughly 0.3 percentage points in 2020. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years, with Democrats controlling both of its U.S. Senate seats and the governorship after flipping the latter in 2022, while Republicans hold a majority of its U.S. House seats and control the state legislature.
Incumbent one-term centrist[1] Independent senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022.
Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election. U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema, the state's purple lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup.
Independents
Publicly expressed interest
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)[2]
Democratic primary
Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge the incumbent.[3] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.
During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[4] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[5]
If Kyrsten Sinema were to run and lose in the Democratic primary, Arizona law stipulates that she would be barred from appearing on the general election ballot, even as a third party candidate.[6] She would only be allowed to run as a write-in candidate, which would severely limit the possibility of a path to victory.[lower-alpha 1] This is colloquially known as a "sore-loser law." Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an Independent.[2]
Declared
- Andrew Becerra, engineer[7]
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)[8]
Potential
- Paul Penzone, Maricopa County Sheriff (2017–present)[9]
- Regina Romero, Mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[10]
Declined
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[11][12]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[13]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Dennis DeConcini, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (1977–1995)[14]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[15]
- Raúl Grijalva, AZ-7 (2003–present)[16]
- Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-2 (2019–2023)[17]
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)[18]
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[19]
- Local officials
- Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[20]
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[21]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[22]
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
| – | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
| – | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
| 60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Republican primary
Former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey was considered a potential candidate, but said he would not run.[27] He would likely have faced a contested primary election due to former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of him for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Pro-Trump contenders include congressmen Andy Biggs and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has reportedly been encouraged to run by 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who herself has expressed interest in running for the seat.[28][29]
Declared
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[30]
- George Nicholson[31]
Publicly expressed interest
- Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022 (will not run if Lake runs)[32]
- Kari Lake, former news anchor, and nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022[32][33]
- Jim Lamon, solar power executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[34]
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[32]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for Governor of Arizona in 2022[35]
- T. J. Shope, President pro tempore of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from the 16th district (2021–present)[36]
Potential
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[37][38]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (1995–2001, 2013–2017)[39]
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[38][40]
- Doug Ducey, former Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[41][27]
- David Schweikert, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011–present)[42]
- Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[38][29]
Endorsements
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | April 10-12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 29% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[44] | Tossup | January 24, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[45] | Battleground | January 6, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] | Tossup | January 24, 2023 |
Polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | 9% |
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | – | 24% |
| 34% | 26% | 19% | 21% | ||||
| Normington Petts (D)[upper-alpha 3] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | 4% |
| 50% | 45% | – | 5% | ||||
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 6% |
| 48% | 47% | – | 5% | ||||
| – | 42% | 39% | 19% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| 32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
| Normington Petts (D)[upper-alpha 3] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
| 33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
| 31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
Notes
- Winning as a Senate write-in candidate has not proven to be impossible. In 2010, incumbent Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican primary to tea party candidate Joe Miller, but won the general election as a write-in candidate by a margin of 40% to 36%.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
- This poll was sponsored by Ruben Gallego
- This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
References
- Staff. "Kyrsten Sinema, Senator for Arizona". GovTrack.us. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- Collins, Eliza (April 7, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- Ryan O'Donnell; Gustavo Sanchez; Brian Burton (October 14, 2021). "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". Data for Progress.
- Zoë Richards; Frank Thorp V; Sahil Kapur (August 4, 2022). "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- Kupar, Sahil (August 2, 2022). "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- "When states adopted sore loser laws". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- "Dems of Greater Tucson Presents: See Our 2023 Speakers". Democrats of Greater Tucson. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
- Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
- Vaughn Hillyard; Bridget Bowman (January 23, 2023). "Gallego bid kicks off potentially crowded Arizona Senate race". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News.
- Christian Paz (December 9, 2022). "How Kyrsten Sinema's decision to leave the Democratic Party will change the Senate". Vox.
- "Democrats Are Ready to Call Kyrsten Sinema's Bluff". The Daily Beast. December 13, 2022.
- Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios.
- "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". Politico. January 19, 2023. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- "Journalist's Roundtable: Ruben Gallego runs for Senate". Arizona PBS. January 27, 2023.
- Schnell, Mychael (April 6, 2023). "Rep. Dan Goldman endorses Gallego for Senate". KXAN. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
- Bridget Bowman; Ben Kamisar; Alexandra Marquez (January 26, 2023). "Eyes on 2024: Mitch Daniels weighs life as a senator". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- Daniela Altimari; Mary Ellen McIntire; Kate Ackley (February 2, 2023). "At the Races: Cash course". CQ Roll Call.
- McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- Bernal, Rafael (May 9, 2023). "Hispanic Caucus campaign arm formally endorses Gallego for Senate". KGET-TV 12. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
- Bender, Michael C. (February 3, 2023). "Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run". The New York Times.
- "CWA Arizona State Council Endorses Rep. Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Communications Workers of America. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- "Teamsters Endorse Ruben Gallego in Arizona Senate Race". Yahoo Finance. PR Newswire. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- Gans, Jared (May 16, 2023). "Liberal group endorsing Gallego after backing Sinema". The Hill. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- "AZ-Sen: "I'm one of the first members of Congress to endorse Ruben Gallego (D). Here's why."". Daily Kos. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- "Candidates". Serve America PAC.
- "VoteVets PAC Endorses Gallego for Arizona Senate". March 27, 2023.
- Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
- Kapur, Sahil (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's decision to quit the Democratic Party jolts Arizona 2024 Senate race". NBC News.
- Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
- Hansen, Ronald J. (April 11, 2023). "Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters US Senate race for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat". USA Today. The Arizona Republic. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- Wong, Kenneth (April 11, 2023). "2024 Elections: Arizonans already declaring candidacies for House and Senate; here's what you should know". Fox 10. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
- Eliza Collins (March 12, 2023). "Kari Lake Is Considering Senate Run, Making Some Republicans Nervous". The Wall Street Journal.
- Nick Givas (April 23, 2023). "Kari Lake says she'll win 2024 Arizona GOP Senate nomination if she runs: 'No one can beat me'". Just the News. Just the News.
- Bridget Bowman; Ben Kamisar (January 20, 2023). "Eyes on 2024: Arizona Senate race shaping up". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News.
- Goodwin, Liz; Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (January 18, 2023). "2024 Senate map is a GOP dream. But candidate strength is unsettled". The Washington Post.
- "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/20". Daily Kos. February 20, 2023. Retrieved February 20, 2023.
- Ferris, Sarah; Allison, Natalie (December 9, 2022). "Sinema party switch jumpstarts Arizona's 2024 Senate battle". Politico.
- Duda, Jeremy (December 12, 2022). "Sinema's switch alters electoral math for GOP and Democrats in 2024". Axios.
- Otterbein, Holly (January 5, 2023). "Gallego builds political team ahead of Sinema showdown". Politico.
- "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. March 26, 2023.
- Drucker, David (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's switch upends 2024 Arizona Senate race". The Washington Examiner.
- Roberts, Laurie (February 18, 2023). "Kari Lake is the GOP's nightmare Senate candidate, but really, who else is there?". The Arizona Republic.
- Latinos for America First (@LFTAMERICAFIRST) (April 22, 2023). "Latinos for America First Proudly endorses Sheriff Mark Lamb for Arizona US Senate". Twitter. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
External links
- Official campaign websites