2024 United States Senate election in California

The 2024 United States Senate election in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election.

2024 United States Senate election in California

November 5, 2024

Incumbent U.S. senator

Dianne Feinstein
Democratic



Incumbent five-term Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein was first elected in a 1992 special election, defeating Republican incumbent John Seymour. She was elected to full terms in 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018, and will be retiring in 2025 at the end of the 118th Congress.[1] Two Democratic U.S. Representatives, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Los Angeles, entered the race prior to Feinstein announcing her retirement.[2][3] A third, Barbara Lee of Oakland, declared her campaign on February 21.[4] This is only the second open Senate race in California in the past thirty years,[lower-alpha 1] and the first open race for the Class I seat since 1982.

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Declined

Declared

  • Eric Early, attorney and perennial candidate[21]
  • Denice Gary-Pandol, educator[22]
  • Roxanne Lawler, contract administrator[5]

Filed paperwork

Potential

Declined

Declared

  • Fepbrina Keivaulqe Autiameineire, nonprofit director[5]

Declined

Primary election

Campaign

Dianne Feinstein in 2021

Media sources speculated for years that Dianne Feinstein might choose not to seek re-election in 2024 or resign before the end of her term, owing to her age, reports that her cognitive state was declining, and her decision not to take the position of Senate president pro tempore in the 118th Congress, third in line for the presidency, even though she would have been customarily offered the role as the most senior member of the majority caucus. There was also speculation that Feinstein might face opposition within the Democratic Party as she did in 2018, when she was challenged by fellow Democrat Kevin de León and defeated him by an unexpectedly narrow margin.[31] In December 2022, Feinstein confirmed that she would not resign before the end of her term.[32]

In January 2023, with the question of Feinstein's re-election decision still up in the air, Democratic U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced she would run for Senate. She confirmed that she would stay in the race even if Feinstein chose to run for another term.[2] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings.[33]

Adam Schiff at his first campaign event, February 2023

Two weeks later, Porter was joined by another Democratic member of the House, Adam Schiff, who said he had consulted with Feinstein before entering the race.[3] A moderate Democrat who unseated incumbent Republican James Rogan in 2000, Schiff's profile rose significantly during the presidency of Donald Trump, owing to Schiff's role as a lead impeachment manager in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, his service on the January 6 Committee, and his frequent appearances on MSNBC.[34][35]

A third Democratic House member, Barbara Lee, reportedly told members of the Congressional Black Caucus in January that she would also run for Senate.[36] As she was already 76 years old in January 2023, Lee reportedly pitched herself to donors as a transitional Senator who would serve only one term.[37] A longtime progressive first elected in a 1998 special election, Lee is known for being the only member of Congress to vote against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, which led to military deployment in Afghanistan and several other countries.[38] Lee filed to run for Senate in early February 2023 and formally announced her campaign later that month.[39][4]

Feinstein continued to demur on her re-election plans, at one point saying she would not announce her decision until 2024.[40] However, in February 2023, she finally confirmed that she would retire, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[14] The 2024 election is only the second California Senate race without an incumbent since 1992, with the other being the 2016 election following the retirement of Barbara Boxer. However, Politico pointed out that the 2016 election had an "early and prohibitive frontrunner" in Kamala Harris while the 2024 election has no clear frontrunner, and thus considered the 2024 election to be the first truly open California Senate race in 32 years.[41]

Katie Porter campaigning at University of California, Davis in March 2023

Lee, Porter, and Schiff have similar voting records in Congress and similarly progressive policy platforms. As a result, they are expected to differentiate themselves from each other based on their life stories and individual strengths rather than their ideologies.[42] However, all three have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Porter has been accused of mistreating congressional staff, Lee's age is seen as a potential issue, and Schiff is expected to face opposition from progressives due to his past support for overseas military intervention and for taking donations from groups affiliated with the oil, payday loan, and pharmaceutical industries, though he has declared he will not accept funds from corporate PACs in his Senate campaign.[43][42] Other important factors include geography, as Schiff and Porter both represent southern California while Lee represents northern California, and diversity, as a victory by Schiff would leave California with no female Senators for the first time since 1992 while a victory by Lee would make her the first black woman in the Senate since Harris left office in 2021.[42][44]

Schiff began 2023 with $20.6 million in his campaign account compared to $7.7 million for Porter and just under $55,000 for Lee.[45] However, all three candidates quickly began raising large sums of money; for example, in the first 24 hours of her campaign, Porter raised over $1.3 million.[46] The three also launched super PACs to aid with fundraising, each competing for the top California fundraising firms and consultants. Former Federal Election Commission chair Ann Ravel predicted that the race would turn out to be one of, if not the most expensive Senate race in history.[47] The expensive nature of the race has led media sources to speculate that a wealthy candidate may decide to launch a self-funded campaign, akin to Rick Caruso's campaign in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.[48]

As of March 2023, no prominent Republicans have announced a campaign. This has been attributed to California's heavy Democratic lean and Republican donors being wary of the high cost of running a statewide campaign in California; GOP strategist Duane Dichiara estimated that a Republican would need at least $80 million to run a viable Senate campaign. Additionally, California's top-two primary system may allow two Democrats to advance to the general election, a scenario that played out in the 2016 and 2018 Senate races. However, the three-way division in the Democratic field could help a Republican reach the general election. Republicans will also benefit from the fact that the 2024 California Republican presidential primary, which will be held on the same day as the Senate primary, is expected to be hotly contested and entice Republican voters to turn out in higher numbers.[30][28]

Endorsements

Barbara Lee (D)
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Local officials
Other state legislators
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Katie Porter (D)
Statewide Officals
U.S. Senators
State assemblymembers
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Adam Schiff (D)
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Barbara
Lee
(D)
Katie
Porter
(D)
Adam
Schiff
(D)
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
UC Berkeley February 14–20, 2023 7,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 8% 20% 23% 10% 39%
6% 20% 22% 13%[lower-alpha 4] 39%
David Binder Research November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 9% 30% 29% 9% 6%[lower-alpha 5] 17%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[97] Solid D January 24, 2023
Inside Elections[98] Solid D January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] Safe D January 24, 2023

Polling

Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Katie
Porter (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Undecided
David Binder Research November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 26% 37%[lower-alpha 6]

Notes

  1. The other was the 2016 race following the retirement of Barbara Boxer.
  2. Schwarzenegger is a Republican, but media speculated that he might run as an independent candidate.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Ro Khanna with 4%
  5. Ro Khanna with 6%
  6. Includes "Would not vote" at 19%

References

  1. "Feinstein: Will Not Run for Reelection in 2024, Focus on This Congress". United States Senator for California Dianne Feinstein. February 14, 2023. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  2. Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter launches a U.S. Senate bid". Orange County Register. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  3. Mason, Melanie (January 26, 2023). "California Rep. Adam Schiff enters marquee Senate race". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  4. Ulloa, Jazmine; Epstein, Reid J. (February 21, 2023). "Barbara Lee, a Longtime Congresswoman, Announces a Run for Senate in California". The New York Times.
  5. "Who Else is Running for U.S. Senate in California Besides the Big Three?". Diamond Eye Candidate Report.
  6. Wright, Davis; Bradner, Eric (January 10, 2023). "Progressive Rep. Katie Porter launches bid for Feinstein's California Senate seat". CNN. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  7. Seiler, John (January 13, 2023). "Lou Correa would be a much better Senate candidate than far-left Katie Porter". Orange County Register. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  8. Skelton, George (December 19, 2022). "Column: Feinstein won't step down early. But when she does, these contenders have the best shot at her seat". LA Times.
  9. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/8". Daily Kos. February 8, 2023.
  10. Gligich, Daniel (May 12, 2023). "Bonta issues dual endorsement in 2024 Senate battle". The San Joaquin Valley Sun. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  11. Rose Dickey, Megan; Bastone, Nick (November 14, 2022). "Mayor London Breed opposes her extra year in office". Axios. Retrieved November 14, 2022.
  12. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/21". February 21, 2023.
  13. Garofoli, Joe; Stein, Shira (February 14, 2023). "Dianne Feinstein will not seek re-election, ending pioneering political career". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  14. Shabad, Rebecca (February 14, 2023). "Sen. Dianne Feinstein announces she will retire from Congress". NBC News. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  15. "Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna announces he won't seek California Senate seat, endorses Rep. Barbara Lee". CNN. March 26, 2023. Retrieved March 26, 2023.
  16. Cadelago, Christopher (April 24, 2023). "Eleni Kounalakis first to launch campaign for California governor in 2026". Politico. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  17. Willon, Phil (November 18, 2022). "California's 2024 U.S. Senate race could be a hot one". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 5, 2023.
  18. Garofoli, Joe (February 25, 2023). "Mayors London Breed and Sheng Thao endorse Barbara Lee for U.S. Senate at Oakland rally". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
  19. "Rep. Katie Porter announces bid for Dianne Feinstein's Senate seat". Los Angeles Times. January 10, 2023.
  20. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/16". February 16, 2023.
  21. "GOP attorney Eric Early announces Senate campaign". April 11, 2023.
  22. "Long Beach RWF to welcome future Senate candidate Denice Gary Pandol to June 11 breakfast meeting". Orange County Breeze. May 16, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
  23. "James Bradley FEC Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). June 8, 2022. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
  24. "Peter Yuan Liu FEC Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). November 14, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  25. "Peter Yuan Liu". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  26. "Barack Obama Mandela FEC Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). July 18, 2022. Retrieved September 23, 2022.
  27. "Barack Obama Mandela". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  28. "California Republicans, buoyed by congressional wins, have no obvious Senate prospects". Los Angeles Times. March 10, 2023.
  29. Garrity, Kelly (April 20, 2023). "Larry Elder enters 2024 presidential race". Politico. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  30. "California Republicans will have rare power in 2024. Now they just need a Senate candidate". February 26, 2023.
  31. Willon, Phil (November 18, 2022). "California's 2024 U.S. Senate race could be a hot one". The Los Angeles Times.
  32. McCaskill, Nolan (December 12, 2022). "Feinstein says she won't step down early from Senate". Los Angeles Times.
  33. Kang, Hanna (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter's most viral moments in Congress". The Orange County Register.
  34. "Adam Schiff's Chances of Winning Feinstein's Senate Seat in 2024 Run". Schiff, a moderate Democrat, has built a reputation as being one of former President Trump's greatest foes.
  35. Stein, Shira; Garofoli, Joe (January 26, 2023). "Trump impeachment star Adam Schiff announces U.S. Senate run". San Francisco Chronicle.
  36. Wu, Nicholas. "Barbara Lee tells lawmakers she's running for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  37. Garofoli, Joe (January 20, 2023). "'We're talking about one term': How Barbara Lee plans to tackle the age question in California Senate race". San Francisco Chronicle.
  38. Brownstein, Ronald (February 3, 2023). "Who Will Replace Dianne Feinstein?". The Atlantic. Retrieved March 17, 2023.
  39. Wright, David (February 16, 2023). "Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee files bid for open Senate seat in California". CNN.
  40. "Exclusive: Sen. Dianne Feinstein won't announce her plans for 2024 — until 2024". Raw Story. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  41. "California Dems prepare for fierce Senate battle". February 5, 2023.
  42. "These Democrats hoping to replace Feinstein largely agree on policy. So how do they differ?". February 2, 2023.
  43. Fossett, Katelyn. "Katie Porter and the 'bad boss' problem". POLITICO.
  44. "California Senate race sets up clash of titans". NBC News.
  45. "California's Crowded Senate Primary Race Is Set to Be Most Expensive in History".
  46. Greenwood, Max (January 11, 2023). "Porter rakes in $1.3M in first 24 hours of Senate bid".
  47. White, Jeremy B. "PACs poised to supercharge California Senate campaign". POLITICO.
  48. "The California Senate Race Begins With a Scuffle Over Candidates' Progressive Bona Fides". Vanity Fair. February 16, 2023.
  49. Poonia, Gitanjali (March 29, 2023). "California Senate race gets crowded with 3 progressive Democrats already in the running". Deseret News. Retrieved March 29, 2023.
  50. Gligich, Daniel (May 11, 2023). "Bonta issues dual endorsement in 2024 Senate battle". The San Joaquin Valley Sun. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  51. Kassel, Matthew (February 21, 2023). "Barbara Lee joins growing Democratic field to claim Feinstein's Senate seat". Jewish Insider.
  52. King, Ryan (May 3, 2023). "Jim Clyburn endorses Barbara Lee in heated California Senate contest". Washington Examiner. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  53. Vakil, Caroline (May 3, 2023). "Clyburn backs Lee in California Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  54. Oreskes, Benjamin (April 13, 2023). "Feinstein's absence puts focus on Newsom's 2020 promise to appoint a Black woman senator". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  55. Vakil, Caroline (May 1, 2023). "Jayapal backs Lee in California Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  56. Wilkins, Brett (May 1, 2023). "Progressive Caucus Chair Jayapal Endorses 'Champion for Justice' Barbara Lee for US Senate". Common Dreams. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  57. Washington, Jessica (March 2, 2023). "Can Barbara Lee Win A Tough Senate Race? Here's Why She Thinks It's Possible". The Root. Retrieved March 26, 2023.
  58. White, Marcus (March 27, 2023). "Bay Area leaders have two clear favorites in California Senate race". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  59. Djegal, Philippe (February 26, 2023). "Rep. Barbara Lee launches campaign for US Senate". KRON4. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
  60. White, Jeremy B.; Korte, Lara; Castanos, Ramon; Brown, Matthew (February 22, 2023). "Tech giants face legal test". POLITICO. Retrieved March 1, 2023.
  61. Cano, Ricardo (April 30, 2023). "S.F. Mayor Breed, other community leaders stump for Rep. Lee in U.S. Senate race". San Francisco Chronicle. Archived from the original on April 30, 2023.
  62. White, Marcus (March 29, 2023). "Bay Area leaders have two clear favorites in California Senate race". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved March 29, 2023.
  63. Shapero, Julia (March 1, 2023). "LA Mayor Karen Bass endorses Barbara Lee for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2023.
  64. Giroux, Gregory (February 21, 2023). "The Race to Succeed Dianne Feinstein in California Gets Even More Crowded". Bloomberg News. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
  65. Coleman, Andre (February 27, 2023). "Paparian Announces Endorsements – Pasadena Now". Pasadena Now. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
  66. "POLITICS: Stacey Abrams endorses Oakland Rep. Barbara Lee for U.S. Senate". CBS News Bay Area. May 8, 2023. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  67. Christopher, Tommy (April 8, 2023). "'Trying To Keep It Together!' MSNBC's Capehart Gets Emotional Over MLK-Era Fights 'Still Being Fought' By Expelled Black TN Rep". Mediaite. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  68. "U.S. Rep Barbara Lee formally kicks off Senate campaign in Oakland". CBS News Bay Area. February 25, 2023. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
  69. Vakil, Caroline; Trudo, Hanna (May 7, 2023). "Battle for Feinstein seat splits top Democrats". KTLA 5. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  70. Sheeler, Andrew (March 2, 2023). "Voters prefer Newsom in Sacramento + McCarthy to speak at CAGOP + Bass endorses Lee". The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  71. Ulloa, Jazmine; Epstein, Reid J. (February 21, 2023). "Barbara Lee, a Longtime Congresswoman, Is Running for Senate in California". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
  72. Booker, Brakkton. "Barbara Lee's 'no gimmicks' Senate run". POLITICO.
  73. Hughes, Thomas (February 21, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee Announces Run For Senate". SFGATE. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
  74. Oreskes, Benjamin; Rosenhall, Laurel (May 8, 2023). "Porter, Schiff and Lee each make the case they're the most labor-friendly Senate candidate". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  75. @BWOPATILE (February 26, 2023). "@BarbaraLeeForCA! What an amazing inspirational day of promise and charge to take our seat in the US Senate. #HowBlackWomenLead #BlackWomenMatter #BLEE4Senate @BWOPAPACEndorsed (Quote tweet)". Twitter. Retrieved April 3, 2023.
  76. Barreras, Peter (April 30, 2023). "United for Barbara Lee Press Event". The Lufkin Daily News. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
  77. Garofoli, Joe (March 5, 2023). "Republicans are still trying to rile up their base by targeting Nancy Pelosi". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  78. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". Feminist Majority Foundation PAC. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  79. "All Endorsed Candidates". WPC Los Angeles. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  80. "About JStreetPAC: Our Senate Endorsees". J Street PAC. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  81. Vitali, Ali (January 12, 2023). "Warren backs Porter in California Senate primary". NBC News.
  82. Chmielewski, Dan (May 12, 2023). "KATIE PORTER'S SENATE BID ENDORSED BY CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLYWOMAN COTTIE PETRIE-NORRIS". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  83. "Portfolio Item: Katie Porter (Members-only)". Women's Political Committee Los Angeles. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  84. Corbett, Jessica (January 10, 2023). "Pledging to 'Stand Up to Special Interests,' Katie Porter Announces Senate Bid". Common Dreams. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  85. IBEW Orange County 441 (@ibewoc441) (May 5, 2023). "IBEW Local 441 proudly endorses Congresswoman Katie Porter for US Senate. For years, Porter has been a champion for IBEW, for working families, and for consumer protections. SHE'S GOT OUR BACK!". Instagram. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  86. Giroux, Greg (January 10, 2023). "Feinstein, 89, Faces Pressure on 2024 as Porter Enters Race". Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  87. "Pelosi to back Schiff in Calif. Senate race if Feinstein doesn't run". Spectrum News. February 2, 2023.
  88. Harrison, Donald H. (March 2, 2023). "B'Shalom: Election 2024 Endorsements and Announcements". San Diego Jewish World. Retrieved March 26, 2023.
  89. Voght, Tara (February 18, 2023). "The Democratic Plot To Take Down Their Impeachment Hero". Rolling Stone. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  90. "Three more California House Democrats are supporting Adam Schiff's bid for Senate, further bolstering a large list of Hill endorsements". Politico. February 16, 2023.
  91. Breuninger, Kevin (February 2, 2023). "Nancy Pelosi endorses Adam Schiff for Senate seat from California if Sen. Dianne Feinstein doesn't run". CNBC.
  92. "They know the way from Sacramento to L.A." Politico. February 17, 2023. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
  93. Owen, Morgan (April 27, 2023). "Defending Democracy … And Other Things: Adam Schiff runs for U.S. Senate". Pasadena Weekly. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  94. "ATU Endorses Congressman Adam Schiff for Senate". Amalgamated Transit Union. May 4, 2023.
  95. "California IATSE Council Endorses Adam Schiff for U.S. Senate". February 9, 2023. Retrieved February 11, 2023.
  96. Barton, Joël (April 28, 2023). "Business Manager's Message — April 2023: Why Politics Matter". IBEW Local 11. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
  97. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  98. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  99. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.