Next United Kingdom general election in Wales

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 24 January 2025. Between 32 and 40 seats will be up for election in Wales.

Next United Kingdom general election in Wales
No later than January 2025
All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak
PC
Leader Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak TBD
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 4 April 2020 24 October 2022
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 14 seats, 36.1% 4 seats, 9.9%
Seats before 21 13 3

Election

Date

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 meaning that the latest date that a new election could be called is before 17 December 2024, with election day no later than 24 January 2025. The UK prime minister is also now able to call a general election.[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

A reduction in the number of Welsh MPs was proposed for the next UK general election. Under the proposals, the number of MPs would be reduced from 40 to 32 and new constituency boundaries have also been proposed.[2]

The revised boundary plans were published on 19 October 2022 with a four-week consultation period following.[3]

Welsh MPs not seeking re-election
Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[4]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[5]

Polling

Vote share
Further information: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election § Wales
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[6]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov  ?  ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[7]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov Archived 23 March 2021 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[8]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov Archived 19 January 2021 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov Archived 3 November 2020 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seats
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 22 14 4 0

See also

Notes

    References
    1. "The intention behind the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is to strengthen the executive and the Conservative Party". British Politics and Policy at LSE. 2022-03-29. Retrieved 2022-10-22.
    2. Hayward, Will (2022-10-19). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2022-10-22.
    3. Masters, Adrian (2022-10-19). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 2022-10-22.
    4. "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
    5. "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 2022-11-11. Retrieved 2022-11-11.
    6. "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
    7. "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
    8. "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
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