2004 United States Senate election in Florida

The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Graham decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Graham made an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Republican Mel Martínez won the open seat with 49.4% of the vote to Democratic nominee Betty Castor's 48.3%. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the closest race of the 2004 Senate election cycle.

2004 United States Senate election in Florida
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee Mel Martínez Betty Castor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,672,864 3,590,201
Percentage 49.4% 48.3%
County results

Martinez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Castor:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Graham
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mel Martínez
Republican

Elections in Florida
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
C.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
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Agriculture Commissioner elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
Jacksonville
Mayoral elections
Sheriff elections
Miami
Mayoral elections
Miami-Dade County
Mayoral elections
Orlando
Mayoral elections
St. Petersburg
Mayoral elections
Tallahassee
Mayoral elections
Tampa
Mayoral elections
Other localities
Fort Lauderdale
Gainesville
Hialeah
Miami Beach
North Miami
Orange County
Pensacola
Government

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results
County results
Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Betty Castor 669,346 58.1%
Democratic Peter Deutsch 321,922 27.9%
Democratic Alex Penelas 115,898 10.1%
Democratic Bernard E. Klein 45,347 3.9%
Total votes 1,152,513 100.0%

Republican primary

Martínez was supported by the Bush Administration.

Candidates

Results
County results
Republican Primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mel Martínez 522,994 44.9%
Republican Bill McCollum 360,474 30.9%
Republican Doug Gallagher 158,360 13.6%
Republican Johnnie Byrd 68,982 5.9%
Republican Karen Saull 20,365 1.8%
Republican Sonya March 17,804 1.5%
Republican Larry Klayman 13,257 1.1%
Republican William Billy Kogut 3,695 0.3%
Total votes 1,165,931 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[3] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2004

Polling
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Betty
Castor (D)		 Mel
Martínez (R)		 Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports August 24 500 ± 4.5% 44% 44%
Survey USA September 12 602 ± 4.1% 49% 45% 5% 1%
Quinnipiac September 18–21, 2004 819 ± 3.4 43% 42% 0% 14%
Gallup September 18 674 ± 4.0% 51% 45% 0% 4%
Survey USA October 1 706 ± 3.8% 46% 50% 3% 1%
Quinnipiac October 1–5, 2004 717 ± 3.7 47% 48% 0% 5%
Mason-Dixon October 4 625 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 1% 12%
UNF October 10 641 ± 4.0% 38% 35% 15% 12%
Mason-Dixon October 14 625 ± 4.0% 45% 45% 1% 9%
Survey USA October 15 596 ± 4.1% 47% 49% 3% 1%
Quinnipiac October 15–19, 2004 808 ± 3.5 47% 47% 0% 5%
Research 2000 October 18 48% 48% 4% 4%
Miami Herald October 19 800 ± 3.5% 44% 44%
Survey USA October 22 741 ± 3.7% 50% 47%
Insider Advantage October 22 400 ± 5.0% 44% 46%
Quinnipiac October 22–26, 2004 944 ± 3.2 46% 49% 0% 5%
The New York Times October 23 802 ± 3.0% 47% 44% 0% 10%
Mason Dixon October 26 625 ± 4.0% 46% 47% 6%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup October 28 1138 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 5%
Quinnipiac University October 31 1098 ± 3.0% 44% 49% 6%
Zogby International October 31 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% 0% 7%

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2004[4]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Melquíades Rafael Martínez Ruiz 3,672,864 49.43% +11.9%
Democratic Elizabeth Castor 3,590,201 48.32% -14.15%
Veterans Dennis F. Bradley 166,642 2.24% +2.24%
Write-ins 187 0.00% +0.0%
Majority 82,663 1.11% -23.83%
Turnout 7,429,894 70.92%[5] +24.08%
Total votes 7,429,894 100.00% +3,529,732
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also

References

  1. "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2016-05-10.
  2. "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2016-05-10.
  3. "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  4. "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
  5. "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". Archived from the original on 2016-12-05. Retrieved 2016-12-06.
Debates
Official campaign websites (archived)

Democrats

Republicans

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