2016 United States presidential election in Missouri

The 2016 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in Missouri

November 8, 2016
Turnout66.56% Increase 0.61 pp[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,594,511 1,071,068
Percentage 56.38% 37.87%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump carried the state with 56.4% of the vote, while Clinton received 37.9%.[3] Trump's 18.5-point margin of victory in the state was almost double that of Mitt Romney's from 2012. Clinton carried only four jurisdictions: Boone County, home to Columbia and the University of Missouri; Jackson County, which includes most of Kansas City; St. Louis County; and St. Louis City. Clinton's vote share percentage was the lowest a Democratic presidential nominee obtained in the state since George McGovern's 37.7% in 1972, further cementing the state's drift towards the Republican Party and away from its long-held status as a bellwether state. Missouri was also one of eleven states that voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but were lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Additionally, this was the first time since 1984 that Missouri voted by double digits for the Republican candidate, and the first time since 1992 that the state voted by double digits for either candidate. As of 2020, this is the largest loss by a Democrat since Democratic nominee Walter Mondale in 1984.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

County results of the Missouri 2016 Democratic presidential primary.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Nine candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[4]

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 310,600 49.61% 36 11 47
Bernie Sanders 309,073 49.37% 35 0 35
Uncommitted 3,697 0.59% 0 2 2
Henry Hewes 651 0.10% 0 0 0
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 437 0.07% 0 0 0
Jon Adams 428 0.07% 0 0 0
Rocky De La Fuente 340 0.05% 0 0 0
Willie Wilson 305 0.05% 0 0 0
Keith Judd 284 0.05% 0 0 0
John Wolfe 245 0.04% 0 0 0
Total 626,060 100% 71 13 84
Source:The Green Papers

Republican primary

  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[4]

Missouri Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 383,631 40.84% 37 0 37
Ted Cruz 381,666 40.63% 15 0 15
John Kasich 94,857 10.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio 57,244 6.09% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,233 0.88% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,361 0.36% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 3,225 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,148 0.23% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,777 0.19% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,681 0.18% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 732 0.08% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 615 0.07% 0 0 0
Jim Lynch (withdrawn) 100 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 939,270 100.00% 52 0 52
Source: The Green Papers

Libertarian primary

The Missouri primary ran on March 15, 2016, alongside those of the Republican, Democratic, and Constitution parties. 40% of the electorate voted to stand uncommitted to any candidate. Austin Petersen, running in his home state, finished second, with 29% of the statewide vote, which was double that of Steve Kerbel from Colorado, who finished third, with 14%. Petersen comfortably won the support of voters in the state's capital, Jefferson City, and its surrounding counties, but was fell heavily behind the uncommitted vote in the state's two largest cities, Kansas City and St. Louis. Kerbel won three counties around Springfield, while Marc Allan Feldman, Cecil Ince, and Rhett Smith all won a sprawl of counties across the state; in most of these counties, however, only a single vote was cast. No votes were cast for Libertarian Party candidates in the northwestern counties of Harrison, Holt, Mercer, and Worth.[5]

Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Uncommitted 1,183 40.61%
Austin Petersen 854 29.32%
Steve Kerbel 401 13.77%
Marc Allan Feldman 242 8.31%
Cecil Ince 134 4.60%
Rhett Smith 99 3.40%
Total 2,913 100%

General election

Polling

Republican Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted here except one. Trump won most polls by high single digits or low double digits. The average of the last three polls had Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton 50% to 39%.[6]

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Missouri as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[7] Likely R November 6, 2016
CNN[8] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[10] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Likely R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[13] Likely R November 8, 2016
Fox News[14] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

The statewide election results were as follows. The total vote count was 2,828,266.[15]

U.S. President and Vice President Party Votes % of Votes
Donald J. Trump, Michael R. Pence Republican 1,594,511 56.38%
Hillary Rodham Clinton, Timothy Michael Kaine Democratic 1,071,068 37.87%
Gary Johnson, Bill Weld Libertarian 97,359 3.44%
Jill Stein, Ajamu Baraka Green 25,419 0.90%
Other Write-ins 19,663 0.70%
Darrell L. Castle, Scott N. Bradley Constitution 13,092 0.46%
Evan McMullin, Nathan Johnson Write-in 7,071 0.25%
Tom Hoefling, Steve Schulin Write-in 48 <0.01%
Laurence Kotlikoff, Edward Leamer Write-in 28 <0.01%
"Rocky" Roque De La Fuente, Michael Steinberg Write-in 6 <0.01%
Marshall Schoenke, James Creighton Mitchell Jr. Write-in 3 <0.01%
Matias Mollin, Andy Oliver Write-in 0 0.00%
Totals 2,828,266 100%

By county

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic

Donald John Trump

Republican

Various candidates

Other parties

Margin Total
County  % #  % # #  % # % #
Adair3,50034.23%6,03058.97%6966.81% 2,530 24.74%10,226
Andrew2,04522.37%6,66572.92%4304.70% 4,620 50.55%9,140
Atchison54119.82%2,06075.46%1294.73% 1,519 55.64%2,730
Audrain2,57025.54%6,98169.39%5105.07% 4,411 43.84%10,061
Barry2,71018.56%11,42878.25%4673.20% 8,718 59.69%14,605
Barton79513.39%4,95983.50%1853.12% 4,164 70.11%5,939
Bates1,61820.15%6,00174.72%4125.13% 4,383 54.58%8,031
Benton2,02521.12%7,21375.21%3523.67% 5,188 54.10%9,590
Bollinger70512.42%4,82785.04%1442.54% 4,122 72.62%5,676
Boone41,12549.04%36,20043.16%6,5437.80% -4,925 -5.87%83,868
Buchanan12,01333.69%21,32059.79%2,3266.52% 9,307 26.10%35,659
Butler3,03617.59%13,65079.09%5733.32% 10,614 61.50%17,259
Caldwell83819.43%3,23274.95%2425.61% 2,394 55.52%4,312
Callaway4,98925.99%13,05768.03%1,1475.98% 8,068 42.04%19,193
Camden4,76821.18%16,94475.26%8023.56% 12,176 54.08%22,514
Cape Girardeau8,49222.93%27,01772.94%1,5294.13% 18,525 50.02%37,038
Carroll74517.08%3,48079.80%1363.12% 2,735 62.71%4,361
Carter43615.30%2,32481.54%903.16% 1,888 66.25%2,850
Cass14,84629.12%33,09864.91%3,0465.97% 18,252 35.80%50,990
Cedar1,01116.08%5,02179.85%2564.07% 6,288
Chariton88822.37%2,95074.33%1313.30% 3,969
Christian8,50820.49%30,94674.51%2,0775.00% 41,531
Clark72421.83%2,45874.13%1344.04% 3,316
Clay45,30441.12%57,47652.17%7,3966.71% 110,176
Clinton2,57225.20%7,06769.23%5695.57% 10,208
Cole10,91329.20%24,61665.86%1,8454.94% 37,374
Cooper1,93224.19%5,62470.42%4305.38% 7,986
Crawford1,82418.39%7,72477.86%3723.75% 9,920
Dade63716.12%3,18480.59%1303.29% 3,951
Dallas1,27217.07%5,89579.10%2863.84% 7,453
Daviess73019.53%2,76774.02%2416.45% 3,738
DeKalb82417.94%3,54077.06%2305.01% 4,594
Dent97814.40%5,60082.46%2133.14% 6,791
Douglas98414.76%5,48682.30%1962.94% 6,666
Dunklin2,36022.31%8,02675.87%1921.82% 10,578
Franklin12,34124.63%35,43070.70%2,3424.67% 50,113
Gasconade1,52020.40%5,67076.10%2613.50% 7,451
Gentry60519.88%2,30475.71%1344.40% 3,043
Greene42,72833.06%78,03560.38%8,4686.55% 129,231
Grundy78017.62%3,46278.18%1864.20% 4,428
Harrison57415.56%2,96580.37%1504.07% 3,689
Henry2,35723.89%7,07571.71%4344.40% 9,866
Hickory1,01621.51%3,54274.98%1663.51% 4,724
Holt34714.73%1,92681.78%823.48% 2,355
Howard1,28326.36%3,27767.32%3086.33% 4,868
Howell2,88116.51%13,89379.59%6813.90% 17,455
Iron93321.86%3,17374.33%1633.82% 4,269
Jackson168,972 55.70%116,21139.0%10,4816.05% 295,664
Jasper10,57221.88%35,07072.57%2,6845.55% 48,326
Jefferson31,56829.71%69,03664.98%5,6345.30% 106,238
Johnson5,93028.06%13,71964.92%1,4837.02% 21,132
Knox37920.27%1,41675.72%754.01% 1,870
Laclede2,55315.91%12,88180.25%6173.84% 16,051
Lafayette4,05325.53%10,98869.21%8355.26% 15,876
Lawrence2,90117.36%13,08978.31%7254.34% 16,715
Lewis93420.96%3,34475.04%1783.99% 4,456
Lincoln5,57522.33%18,15972.75%1,2284.92% 24,962
Linn1,24022.19%4,08873.17%2594.64% 5,587
Livingston1,26519.70%4,87975.99%2774.31% 6,421
Macon1,54820.29%5,79875.98%2853.73% 7,631
Madison1,00518.89%4,10277.09%2144.02% 5,321
Maries79417.64%3,56179.13%1453.22% 4,500
Marion2,99423.14%9,41972.80%5254.06% 12,938
McDonald1,32916.12%6,59980.07%3143.81% 8,242
Mercer21612.38%1,48685.16%432.46% 1,745
Miller1,75015.33%9,28581.33%3813.34% 11,416
Mississippi1,45828.21%3,60069.65%1112.15% 5,169
Moniteau1,23718.11%5,34778.29%2463.60% 6,830
Monroe85320.52%3,15976.01%1443.46% 4,156
Montgomery1,11920.61%4,12776.02%1833.37% 5,429
Morgan1,76820.04%6,76076.64%2933.32% 8,821
New Madrid1,93326.27%5,27071.63%1542.09% 7,357
Newton4,99018.76%20,55377.25%1,0634.00% 26,606
Nodaway2,52926.74%6,38067.46%5495.80% 9,458
Oregon86518.53%3,67178.64%1322.83% 4,668
Osage99814.08%5,85682.60%2363.33% 7,090
Ozark72416.07%3,63980.78%1423.15% 4,505
Pemiscot1,94732.30%3,96465.77%1161.92% 6,027
Perry1,52017.39%6,90879.04%3123.57% 8,740
Pettis4,32423.87%12,81070.73%9775.39% 18,111
Phelps4,76625.69%12,70968.50%1,0785.81% 18,553
Pike1,80624.46%5,27471.44%3024.09% 7,382
Platte20,05740.85%25,93352.82%3,1106.33% 49,100
Polk2,63119.12%10,43875.84%6945.04% 13,763
Pulaski2,92221.66%9,87673.22%6905.12% 13,488
Putnam35315.05%1,93682.52%572.43% 2,346
Ralls1,13821.61%3,96975.37%1593.02% 5,266
Randolph2,28322.15%7,52973.03%4974.82% 10,309
Ray3,09028.43%7,10465.36%6756.21% 10,869
Reynolds54017.77%2,40679.20%923.03% 3,038
Ripley83015.03%4,52281.86%1723.11% 5,524
Saline2,78930.07%5,97764.45%5085.48% 9,274
Schuyler35418.29%1,50577.74%773.98% 1,936
Scotland36518.55%1,52577.49%783.96% 1,968
Scott3,57520.72%13,16876.31%5132.97% 17,256
Shannon77619.88%2,96675.97%1624.15% 3,904
Shelby60618.62%2,52477.54%1253.84% 3,255
St. Charles68,62634.14%121,65060.52%10,7295.34% 53,024 26.38%201,005
St. Clair93620.22%3,50175.62%1934.17% 2,565 55.40%4,630
St. Francois6,25025.27%17,46870.64%1,0104.08% 11,218 45.37%24,728
St. Louis286,70455.69%202,43439.32%25,7205.00% -84,270 -16.37%514,858
St. Louis City104,23579.45%20,83215.88%6,1244.67% -83,403 -63.57%131,191
Ste. Genevieve2,54230.02%5,49664.90%4315.09% 2,954 34.88%8,469
Stoddard1,87614.11%11,07983.36%3362.53% 9,203 69.24%13,291
Stone2,88717.43%13,15879.42%5223.15% 10,271 62.00%16,567
Sullivan52621.16%1,88475.78%763.06% 1,358 54.63%2,486
Taney4,37318.60%18,27677.72%8663.68% 13,903 59.12%23,515
Texas1,72815.77%8,87581.01%3533.22% 7,147 65.23%10,956
Vernon1,70719.85%6,53375.97%3594.17% 4,826 56.12%8,599
Warren3,91524.80%11,11170.39%7584.80% 7,196 45.59%15,784
Washington1,92620.75%7,04875.93%3083.32% 5,122 55.18%9,282
Wayne94816.45%4,65880.84%1562.71% 3,710 64.39%5,762
Webster3,17718.98%12,84076.69%7264.34% 9,663 57.71%16,743
Worth19518.64%80877.25%434.11% 613 58.60%1,046
Wright1,17014.41%6,70782.61%2422.98% 5,537 68.20%8,119

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[16]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 19% 77% Lacy Clay
2nd 53% 42% Ann Wagner
3rd 67% 28% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 65% 29% Vicky Hartzler
5th 40% 55% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 63% 31% Sam Graves
7th 70% 25% Billy Long
8th 75% 21% Jason Smith

See also

References

  1. "Voter Turnout Report - State of Missouri General Election - 2016 General Election" (PDF). Missouri's Secretary of State.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. 19 September 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  3. "Missouri Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved 2018-07-09.
  4. "Home". Archived from the original on 2016-01-31. Retrieved 2016-02-03.
  5. "State of Missouri - Election Night Results". Missouri Secretary of State. Government of Missouri. 16 March 2016. Archived from the original on 18 March 2016. Retrieved 16 March 2016.
  6. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Missouri: Trump vs. Clinton".
  7. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  8. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  12. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  14. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  15. "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Missouri". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2018-03-28.
  16. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
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